The China Syndrome: What Will the Proposed Laws Mean for Hong Kong?
Just as with that great 70s film, the world waits to see if Hong Kong will explode in nuclear fashion or find safe containment
I was a small kid in the seventies, but in those dying years of the Cold War when the nuclear threat loomed large, films about all kinds of nuclear incidents abounded.
The China Syndrome was one such, albeit not about a nuclear war but a near-miss nuclear power accident. It was prophetically released in early March 1979, just weeks before the real-life US nuclear power plant drama of Three Mile Island.
In terms of the film (which is good — watch it), “China Syndrome” referred to a nuclear meltdown scenario named because there would be nothing to stop the meltdown tunnelling through the earth to the other side of the world (ie “China”) — a little nonsensical but nonetheless evocative.
Today, the world faces another very real “China Syndrome”. This time, however, it involves Hong Kong and whether the democracy protests will go nuclear or be contained by the Hong Kong government and China.
I wrote a piece for Medium last year about my view on the protests against the criminal repatriation bill and China’s gradual taking back of Hong Kong under the “One County, Two Systems” philosophy.
Predicting that the protestors — while having every right to protest — needed to face the fact that reunification on China’s terms was impossible to repel, understandably the piece received a mixed response.
Managing COVID-19 and social distancing acted as a temporary dampener on protests, but in recent weeks we have seen a return to full protests, so it felt timely to write a follow-up piece to my earlier writings on Hong Kong.
Why Are the Protests Occurring Again?
The democracy movement was always going to restart its protests due to the fear of a slow erosion of democratic rights for Hong Kong and diminishment of the “One Country, Two Systems” principal as the region approaches the halfway mark for full reunification with China in 2047.
But the spark that has flared up riots, even as social distancing and the fear of COVID-19 remains, was the move by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to enact new laws around civil protest in Hong Kong.
The change is twofold:
- Anti-terrorism law to target secession, subversion, terrorism and foreign influence.
- A bill that requires the Chinese anthem to be taught in schools, sung by local organisations, with fines or imprisonment occuring for those who disrespect the anthem.
Why Do Hong Kong Democracy Activists Fear this Change?
Besides the obvious that these new laws are another overt sign of China encroaching further on Hong Kong Sovereignty, the anti-terrorism law, in particular, presents a stark reality for future protest: that there is a much higher likelihood protestors will be prosecuted and detained for speaking out against China or the CCP.
As one protestor I heard interviewed said, “This will be the end of Hong Kong.” This view has been echoed more broadly by worried governments and commentators in the international community who fear there will be a flow-on affect for their own citizens who live and work in Hong Kong.
What Does the Hong Kong Government Say?
Much-maligned Hong Kong Leader, Carrie Lam, has attempted to allay the fears of the democracy movement.
Fronting the media, she implored protestors to wait and see the details of the legislation before jumping to conclusions about how their rights would be affected.
How Will This Play Out?
We are already seeing how seriously those who fear the end of Hong Kong are taking these moves, with thousands of protestors once again hitting the streets, ignoring Lam’s pleas as they have for most of the prolonged period of protest.
Alongside this, has been one of the largest police presences as push back against the protestors, with escalating violence and a string of arrests made.
Many protestors claim the CCP cannot impose the laws on Hong Kong, but the stark reality is, that it can.
And, it will.
What Does This All Mean for the People of Hong Kong?
Sadly, Hong Kong looks once again poised for a period of violence, instability and protest. However, when the laws are brought down, they might, as some suggest and the CCP obviously hopes, snuff out the flame of many of the protestors.
And while the movement has enjoyed the support of a large chunk of Hong-Kongese (at one protest last year, up to 2,000,000 turned up out of a population of 7,000,000), the new laws might also encourage Hong Kong-ese detractors of the democracy movement to harden their stance further against the protests. These detractors are locals — mostly an older demographic and a chunk of the business community that has suffered massively as it was caught up in the perfect storm of the protests and COVID-19 — who have enjoyed some respite due to the lockdown, and who now must be watching the renewed protests with the feeling that some ghost of the past has come back to haunt their lives.
What is the End Game?
For the democracy movement, the end game is simple the continued actualisation of “One Country, Two Systems”, now and beyond 2047, with democracy enshrined into the way Hong Kong is governed.
For China, it is the full reunification of Hong Kong into the mainland in a way that satisfies the CCP’s ideological objectives.
I predict the economic, political and social systems of China will continue to morph into something more like a true socialist market economy, with the reunification of Hong Kong a major part of this great pivot.
My View: Hong Kong Won’t be a Nuclear Disaster for China
On the surface, these distinct end games appear to be in stark contrast, impossible to marry or find common ground over.
But think on this: The year 2047 is still 27 years away and much can change during that time. China has already come so far over the past 25 years, blossoming in ways few would ever have imagined even as little as half a century ago.
And while most think of China as a communist country, which from the outside it may appear to be shifting more towards under a more ideological leader like Xi Jinping, I predict the economic, political and social systems of China will continue to morph into something more like a true socialist market economy, with the reunification of Hong Kong a major part of this great pivot.
As I pointed out in my earlier article, China does not want Hong Kong to fail. And while this latest outbreak of protest and the associated clampdown are of concern, the CCP will find a way forward that allows Hong Kong to retain some essence of democracy while being an integral component of the superpower China will inevitably become in the twenty-first century and beyond.
Hong Kong will not be a nuclear disaster for China or the world — damage from the current situation will be contained, safeguards put in place and Hong Kong will once again become a unique region of China, and the world, as it has always been.
